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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Pocono Raceway on Sunday for the 2022 M&M's Fan Appreciation 400, marking the circuit's first trip to the Pennsylvania track this season. This is a departure from years prior, as for the first time since 1981, this will be the only NASCAR Cup Series race at Pocono. The Tricky Triangle lost its June race to Gateway, which has to be disappointing to drivers like Denny Hamlin and the Busch Brothers. Those three have combined for 13 wins at this track entering NASCAR at Pocono 2022, while all other active drivers have combined for just nine victories. The 2022 NASCAR at Pocono Raceway green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday on USA (stream now on FuboTV).

Kyle Busch is the 6-1 favorite, with Hamlin right behind him at 13-2 according to the 2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds at Caesars Sportsbook. The latest 2022 NASCAR at Pocono Raceway odds also have reigning Cup Series champion Kyle Larson at 7-1, with current points leader Chase Elliott at 15-2. Before scouring the 2022 M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Pocono predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Pocono picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on him again when he returned 14-1 for his win in St. Louis. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Pocono race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 leaderboard.

One surprise: the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's a 12-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Blaney has finished in the top 10 of the Cup Series standings the last five years, but he's poised for his best season ever. He currently sits in third place and has the second-most stage wins (five) and third-most top-fives (seven). He also won the NASCAR All-Star Race in a thrilling overtime finish, narrowly beating Hamlin.

The Ohio native's first-ever Cup Series victory came at Pocono in 2017, but his first win at the Tricky Triangle came on the Truck Series in 2013. Last June, Blaney finished fifth and sixth in back-to-back NASCAR at Pocono races, and his average finish of 11.4 at this track is fifth-best among all active drivers. Given his previous success at this track, impressive season, and long odds, Blaney is a steal for your 2022 M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 bets, according to the model. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 15-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2022 M&M's Fan Appreciation starting grid. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion sits with a comfortable 67-point lead atop the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series standings and has finished first or second in the last four races of the season.

However, while Pocono Raceway is regularly compared to a road course because of its enormous emphasis on braking, Elliott hasn't fared nearly as well there as he has on road courses in his career. He's winless in 12 career starts at "The Tricky Triangle" and has finished outside the top 10 in four of his last five starts there. That includes a 27th-place finish in the most recent race there and two other finishes of 25th or worse. See which other favorites to avoid here.

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 2022? And which long shot makes a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season. 

See full NASCAR Pocono picks, best bets, and predictions here

Kyle Busch 6-1 Denny Hamlin 13-2 Kyle Larson 7-1 Chase Elliott 15-2 Martin Truex Jr. 10-1 Kevin Harvick 10-1 William Byron 10-1 Ross Chastain 10-1 Ryan Blaney 12-1 Joey Logano 15-1 Alex Bowman 15-1 Christopher Bell 17-1 Kurt Busch 20-1 Tyler Reddick 25-1 Daniel Suarez 28-1 Chase Briscoe 28-1 Bubba Wallace 30-1 Aric Almirola 50-1 Austin Cindric 50-1 Brad Keselowski 50-1 Erik Jones 75-1 Ricky Stenhouse 75-1 Chris Buescher 75-1 Austin Dillon 100-1 Noah Gragson 300-1 Cole Custer 300-1 Justin Haley 500-1 Michael McDowell 500-1 Harrison Burton 750-1 Ty Dillon 1000-1 Corey Lajoie 2500-1 Todd Gilliland 2500-1 BJ McLeod 5000-1 Cody Ware 5000-1 JJ Yeley 5000-1 Josh Bilicki 5000-1

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